Update 11/02 : Publication in Foundations of Physics.
Update 5/04: New 9/11 effect seen in GotPsi Card Test data
See also: Premonitions of 9/11
A
disturbance in the Force...?
The
tragic events of September 11, 2001 have profoundly shocked the entire
world. But perhaps their influence propagates even more deeply than
we imagine, even into the fabric of reality itself, perhaps even into
events prior to their occurrence. In popular culture, this might
be called a "disturbance in the Force", but new and innovative
science may have something much more serious to say about the matter.
Since 1998, the Global
Consciousness Project has been monitoring the outputs of 40 or more
random number generators (RNGs) around the world. Each of these RNGs
generates 200 bits of random data every second and sends them to a server
at the GCP. The generators are based on physical devices considered
fundamentally random, not merely deterministic computer algorithms.
It is these data -- not the "global consciousness" hypothesis
-- that we are most interested in.
Preposterous though it may sound, significant
deviations have been noted in the randomness of data from these RNGs
around times of major events in the world. Immediate questions,
of course, include "Is this a real effect?" and, if so, "What
is going on?".
Roger Nelson, Director of the GCP, and
Dean Radin at the Institute of Noetic
Sciences and others have been analyzing data from the RNG network
on and around September 11. Some preliminary analyses found striking
anomalies, four of which are shown below. Note that the apparent deviation
from randomness began several hours before the events in New
York and Washington. See
the GCP web site and especially
Dean's draft
report for more information on these graphs and extensive statistical
analyses of the data before, during, and after the events.
Randomness
and Causality
Why is this of interest to us at the Boundary
Institute? Because our theoretical and experimental work have focused
specifically and directly on the concepts of randomness and causality
in physics. Our theoretical work strongly
suggests, and we have been saying for some time, that certain random
physical processes (such as the "collapse" of the wave function
in quantum mechanics) may not be as random and indeterminate as assumed,
and in fact may be dependent on other factors and thus influenceable
at a fundamental level under certain conditions. And contrary to common
assumption, these phenomena and new theory are not in major conflict
with existing physics. A great deal of experimental evidence tends to
support this hypothesis as well.
Now, far more significant events seem
to have registered in random devices all over the globe. On the surface,
these events seem to support the perennial and appealing idea that thoughts
can have effects on physical reality. Perhaps so, but this remains to be
properly established. It is still possible that some prosaic explanation will be
found for the observed data, although none have been sufficient so far.
We do not know whether the effects shown
in these analyses will hold up under further scrutiny. If they do, we
do not necessarily subscribe to the hypotheses that the GCP or anyone
else has put forth to explain them. In any case, anecdotal one-time
occurrences, no matter how dramatic, are no substitute for careful scientific
investigation and experimental replication. However, at the very least,
this apparent deviation in the randomness of physical devices under
certain conditions needs to be analyzed further and studied closely
by science.
If these effects persist through further
analyses, and the randomness of fundamental physical processes can be
influenced by external global or local events, the implications for
both science and society could be very large indeed. As just one example
(highly speculative, to be sure), if these effects are real, it might
be possible to predict some large-scale calamities in advance by careful
observation of random devices such as the generators of the GCP.
Such speculations are easy to make, of
course, while research in this area is very difficult and fraught with
pitfalls. But only by solidly confronting this data and bringing to bear
the full power of science will we eventually find out what really happened
to the GCP's random number generators on September 11.
Three
Independent Analyses (Dec 2001)
It has now been over 2 months
since the terrible events of September 11. In addition to the analysis
by Roger Nelson at the Global Consciousness Project, several independent
analyses have been made of the data from the GCP Random Number Generators
with regard to those events. These reports include some quite different
interpretations of the same data, and thus represent science in progress,
not just final results cleaned up for publication after all the dust
has settled. They are provided here to stimulate further discussion
of these provocative phenomena.
Global
Consciousness Project Analysis for September 11, 2001,
by Dean Radin, Institute of Noetic Sciences and the Boundary Institute,
2001 (PDF)
"Based upon
an analysis of 3 months of GCP data, I conclude that a statistical anomaly
occurred that was associated with the date, time and general
location of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. There is also
evidence that the anomaly began to appear a few hours before the widely
visible
events unfolded." [Report also available on the GCP web site]
Global
Consciousness Project: An Independent Analysis of the 11 September 2001
Events,
by
Edwin May and James Spottiswoode, Laboratories for Fundamental Research,
2001 (PDF)
"We also provide
verification of a separate analysis posted by Dr. Dean Radin, but we
differ markedly with regard to the posted conclusions. Using Radin’s
analysis, we do not find significant evidence that the GCP network’s
EGG’s responded to the New York City attacks in real time. ... We conclude
that the network random number generators produced data consistent with
mean chance expectation during the worst single day tragedy in American
history." [If this report is read carefully, it actually gives strong
evidence for the reality of the effect! -- rgs]
EGG
Anomalies, by
Richard Shoup, Boundary Institute, 2001 (PDF)
"Analysis and
interpretation of random number streams can be problematic and contentious
as attested by the two somewhat differing reports by Radin and by May
and Spottiswoode concerning the GCP EGGs with regard to September 11,
2001. Our analysis lies somewhere in between these two, but closer to the first. We find that
something quite unusual did happen in the RNG network on September 11,
and discuss anomalies at three different time scales. Especially interesting
is a significant correlation among the RNGs which seems to have occurred
uniquely on September 11. These anomalies are provocative and may support
hypotheses other than global conciousness. Further investigation is
strongly urged."
Correlations of Continuous Random Data with Major World Events,
by
R.D. Nelson, D.I. Radin, R. Shoup, and P.A. Bancel, 2002 (PDF)
Published in
Foundations of Physics Letters, Volume 15, Number 6, December 2002
"The interaction of consciousness and physical systems is most often
discussed in theoretical terms, usually with reference to the
epistemological and ontological challenges of quantum theory. Less well known
is a growing literature reporting experiments that examine the mind-matter
relationship empirically. Here we describe data from a global
network of physical random number generators that shows unexpected
structure apparently associated with major world events. Arbitrary
samples from the continuous, four-year data archive meet rigorous criteria
for randomness, but pre-specifed samples corresponding to events
of broad regional or global importance show significant departures of
distribution parameters from expectation. These deviations also correlate
with a quantitative index of daily news intensity. Focused analyses of
data recorded on September 11, 2001, show departures from
random expectation in several statistics. Contextual analyses indicate
that these cannot be attributed to identifiable physical interactions and
may be attributable to some unidentified interaction associated with human consciousness."
If you have any scientific comment,
observation, or a premonition to share on this subject, please email us
at info (at) boundary.org. We will keep
confidential any such communication, but cannot promise to respond to
every email.
If you would like to help support
further research in this area, please contact us at shoup (at) boundary.org.
